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PAC10
Dec 6, 2010 12:44:22 GMT -5
Post by Cliff's Notes on Dec 6, 2010 12:44:22 GMT -5
So Big Ten Expansion is officially over. espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/20753/big-ten-expansion-push-ran-its-courseSupposedly. I believe it is over for now. Going from 11 schools to 12 schools, was a no-brainer from most angles. Money-wise, due to adding a conference championship, and adding the brand-name of Nebraska, it was an easy decision and a huge positive for the conference and it's members. But going from 12 to 13 will be extremely difficult. At this point, I can only see the Big Ten expanding further if there is a drastic sea change. Here's a list of what might need to happen. The first three items I consider doubtful, but at least somewhat realistic. The other things are technically possible, but I would be shocked to be discussing this in the next 15 years, if ever. 1. Notre Dame changes it's mind and wants into The Big Ten. The assumption is that the ND brand-name is big enough for a national ratings and revenue bump, and that the combined effect of having ND, Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State alums and fans on the East Coast would get The Big Ten Network onto Basic Cable throughout NYC. If this is correct, The Big Ten could easily add a less-prestigious 14th team, as well as perhaps teams 15 and 16. Maryland, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, BC, or Missouri would all make sense. None would get invited on their own as #13, but each has reasons that they would work as a complementary piece with ND. To be clear, if the Big Ten does add ND AND this gets the BTN on basic cable on the east coast, this move would be big enough to carry three second tier schools to get to 16 schools. 2. The Feds get involved, a real National Playoff commences, and the bowl system is neutered / minimized / eliminated. I don't know if the Big Ten would expand, but I believe that this would set off a Wild Wild West scramble, and I don't know what would happen. I wouldn't be shocked by anything in this scenario. 3. TV revenue and/or alternative media (such as Streaming) becomes a much bigger driver. The TV revenues have taken a massive jump in the last few years, and The Big Ten Network has made far more money than anyone expected. I expect TV revenue to grow for a few more years, as The Big Ten will be negotiating their primary deal soon, which expires in 2015. They will get a major bump from ESPN, or perhaps Fox comes in and buys the business. But after that, I expect a plateau in growth nationwide. However, if the ridiculous growth continues, again, it may be enough for The Big Ten to take a harder look at expanding to add markets. Other things that might change the Big Ten's mind, which again I consider very doubtful: 4. University of Texas decides they want in. 5. University of Florida decides they want in. 6. The four California Pac 10 schools want in. 7. The heart of the ACC, which would start with UNC, probably include Duke and NC State, and perhaps include Virginia or Maryland, comes calling. 8. Socialism reigns, Research Revenue for Universities explodes, and The Big Ten looks to add schools based on Research and Academic credentials. Looking at you, MIT and Hopkins.
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PAC10
Dec 6, 2010 18:02:29 GMT -5
Post by harlem on Dec 6, 2010 18:02:29 GMT -5
I guess it is an overpowering assumption that if Notre Dame gives up its indy status, it will join the Big Ten. Is it not possible that they could just as easily join the Big East where its other athletic programs currently reside? It is a BCS conference, after all, and the Big East suits their basketball team just fine.
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PAC10
Dec 7, 2010 11:05:19 GMT -5
Post by Cliff's Notes on Dec 7, 2010 11:05:19 GMT -5
I guess it is an overpowering assumption that if Notre Dame gives up its indy status, it will join the Big Ten. Is it not possible that they could just as easily join the Big East where its other athletic programs currently reside? It is a BCS conference, after all, and the Big East suits their basketball team just fine. Short Answer: The biggest reason for Notre Dame to leave independence behind and join a conference is money. The Big East has no money. The Big Ten has lots of it, and adding Notre Dame is a financial win-win for both. Long Answer: The biggest reason to stay independent is because that is the ND identity. A Private, Catholic, National (NOT Midwestern), Independent, Highly-ranked Undergraduate and Liberal Arts school school. Which (right or wrong) they protect fiercely. Being able to schedule "who they want, when they want" is a big, big deal to them. The Conference Money Pool is mostly made up of: Football and Basketball TV revenue, Bowl money and NCAA Basketball Tournament Money. The per school payout to EACH Big Ten School for 2009-2010 was $22 Million. This will be increasing each year due to a few staggered bumps. The Big Ten Championship for one. The immediate bump of an added bowl team potentially for another. Soon enough there will be renegotiated moneys for each Big Ten Bowl Slot. In a few years, there will be a bidding war for the Football TV rights by ESPN and Fox. And finally, the BTN payouts will increase for a number of reasons. It is not unrealistic to think that when the next TV contract hits in 2015, that each Big Ten school will get $32-$35 Million from the conference. The per school payout to EACH SEC school for 2009-2010 was about $17 Million. This will not increase anytime soon. They have a long-term deal with ESPN that does not allow for a SEC-Network. Any increase will only be the incrememental increases from collected BCS or Tournament moneys, that are shared by all the leagues. If the SEC expands, the per team payout would not increase dramatically, they would basically be splitting up their pie into more shares. The per school ACC, Big XII, and Pac-10 payouts are in the range of $10-$12 Million per school. The Pac-10 will see some moderate growth with their championship game, and they are expected to begin their own Pac Ten Network (they hired the guy who started The Big Ten Network). But that's a few years away, and will take some time to make money, and the Pac-10 region is smaller than the Big Ten Region. The ACC just redid their contract, and they will see a jump to around $15 Million I think starting next year. But there's no reason to think they will see any other increases any time soon. The Big XII - soon to be the Big teXas - has a pretty sizable gap in distributions. Texas, Oklahoma, and A&M can get $15 M, while Baylor and Iowa State can get $5 M. The Big East schools get about $5 Million from their Conference. Notre Dame's "equivalent" current "conference revenue is about $14 Million. They have also normalized their money year to year, so they get a chunk from the BCS each year automatically, and only get a small increase if they make a BCS Bowl. It's not like in the 80's or 90's when it was all-or-nothing. For a few reasons, the NBC contract IS NOT expected to increase dramatically, if at all, at the next round of negotiations. The addition of ND to the Big East would not increase the ND revenue stream at all. ND to the ACC makes a certain amount of sense, with more smaller private schools (Duke, BC, Wake, Miami) and cities like Miami, Boston, and DC, but a spot in New York is lacking (UConn, Syracuse, or Rutgers to the ACC, too?). ND to the SEC might see a small bump in revenue, but do you really see ND wanting to associate with Ole Miss and Arkansas and Tennessee and Kentucky? ND to the Big XII/Big teXas might see a slight bump, but I don't see the fit real well. Two potential pluses for ND: Latin American Catholics, and the Big Xll might their soul to get ND (a smaller conference schedule; more money). ND to the Pac-10 makes some sense, too, given the relationships with Stanford and USC. There would be a revenue bump going to The Pac 10, but it would take more time to roll out, and travel (and the time zone issue) might be a bigger issue. That leaves The Big Ten. ND would need to make the jump before the next TV contract is negotiated, for the ND brand to have an effect on the negotiations. But the big question is basic cable in NYC. If ND (plus the other Big Ten schools) can get the BTN onto basic cable in NYC (and perhaps Boston and throughout the East Coast), it's game over. Adding it up, and ND to The Big Ten could be worth an additional $8-10 Million PER BIG TEN TEAM (assuming 14 teams). So now, in 2016 or 2017, when every other school in every other BCS conference [plus Notre Dame minus Big East Schools] is pulling in $15-$17 M per team, The Big Ten could be pulling in $40 M per SCHOOL. This is why the assumption is that if Notre Dame leaves Independence, it would be for The Big Ten.
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PAC10
Dec 7, 2010 16:01:40 GMT -5
Post by theforty on Dec 7, 2010 16:01:40 GMT -5
The Big 10 has two big $$$ advantages that other conferences cannot currently match:
a. A fully mature cable network (i.e. no learning curve / growing pains to overcome), and
b. The network is on basic cable throughout the entire Big Ten footprint. That represents a larger population base (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana to a lesser extent) than any other conference can boast. Virtually all, if not all, athletic programs would be better off financially if they were in the Big Ten as opposed to whatever conference they are currently in.
With regards to b., it really only makes sense to invite a school in the future that can expand the footprint appreciably (as well as meet academic standards), which means NY, Florida, Texas, California, or maybe Missouri, I think. Not many schools could do that, but ND could conceivably. I still dream of Texas, but I don't think that will happen.
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PAC10
Dec 8, 2010 13:04:02 GMT -5
Post by Cliff's Notes on Dec 8, 2010 13:04:02 GMT -5
Correct.
Also, the larger population base (and alumni) of The Big Ten schools is greater than any other conference. So there is also a built-in reason that Big Ten schools will generally get higher ratings than other conferences, and therefore a more lucrative contract with the networks.
The BTN also has been helpful in recruiting in ALL sports. Football and Basketball recruits in Florida and Texas and California know that their parents will be able to watch EVERY SINGLE GAME on TV, and even in the non-revenue sports like soccer, baseball, and women's sports, the kids will be on TV a lot, too.
Don't forget about the academics and research advantages. These are huge as well. Notre Dame and many other schools would align with the CIC (the Big Ten academic consortium) in a heartbeat if they could get an invite.
As far as further expansion, I think the power bases are set in the Big Ten, ACC, SEC, and Pac 10. I would be absolutely shocked to see these conferences fall apart, and they each have 12 schools, which is the highest optimum number you can realistically have, for now. So expansion for expansion's sake doesn't make much sense.
The Big East is not stable, per se, but there don't appear to be any external forces that would really shake them up. And while there are some internal squabbles, they are somewhat forced to stick together, because there aren't any better options out there.
There's only one realistic, but still very doubtful thing that I could see happening to completely shake up the Big East. If the catholics decide to make their own division, something big could happen. Notre Dame would join the Catholic League in all sports except for football with DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, and Villanova. Still, if this were to happen, it wouldn't really have a big impact on the world of college football. On college basketball, you'd basically be splitting up the Big East into two separate conferences, so there might be a little bit of trickle-down to expand some, but I don't think it would gut any other conferences.
That really leaves ND and the powers in the Big X to see if they make a move. We've already discussed ND. That leaves Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M as the other drivers behind expansion. The new Big XII (or Big teXas, or Big X, or Big IIX) isn't all that stable or equitable. All three were serious about leaving, but there was never a consensus that could be reached with all parties. Anything could really happen. One or more of the powers could go to the Pac 10, the Big Ten, the SEC, or Independence, and they could bring a 'little brother' with them (OSU, TT, Baylor). And, they could stay put for a long time, too.
Make no mistake, The Big Ten would expand for Texas or Notre Dame. I just don't think Texas is looking to move anywhere, and if they did, it would probably be to the Pac 10 or Independence. But we'll see where money and politics shakes out over the next couple of years.
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PAC10
Dec 8, 2010 16:49:30 GMT -5
Post by theforty on Dec 8, 2010 16:49:30 GMT -5
The problem with Texas is the politics involved.
a. The Univeristy of Texas will demand a lions share of revenues, which doesn't fit the Big 10's equal revenue sharing model, and
b. The Texas legislature will force UT to bring two or three other Texas public universities with it into the new conference, none of which meet the B-10's academic standards or bring any else to the table.
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PAC10
Dec 9, 2010 0:37:48 GMT -5
Post by Cliff's Notes on Dec 9, 2010 0:37:48 GMT -5
There's a bunch of things going on with the University of Texas.
First of all, they do want to be the big fish. And would probably rather be the big fish in a little pond than one of many big fish in the SEC or Big Ten.
Next, the state politics of Texas is a big deal. However, it will shift back and forth, so whatever the Texas legislature / Governor / Lt Governor are thinking now, may change in a few years if new people take office.
Third, Texas would like to continue it's rivalry/relationship with both Oklahoma and A&M. As well, they would be happy to keep a relationship with other Texas schools, too.
There are many, many factors involved. Texas is trying to start their own cable channel. Also, I hear that UTexas is scared to death of letting the SEC gain an entry into Texas. If A&M left, the floodgates may open to allow more recruits to leave. As it is, Texas can more or less select the top talent in Texas every year. This goes back to being the big fish. There's too many factors to predict.
A&M has made it pretty clear that they do not want to go to The Pac 10 or The Big Ten; if they leave they want to go to the SEC.
Oklahoma is probably stuck being tied to Oklahoma State. Furthermore, Oklahoma academics are a non-starter for The Big Ten. IF things fell apart, I'm sure they would be happy with either the Pac 10 or the SEC; the question is, would those conferences take OSU, too? Again, it would depend on where things shake out a few years down the road.
From The Big Ten's standpoint, I think they would take Texas and Texas A&M in a heartbeat, but they wouldn't take anybody else that Texas might want to bring (or be politically handcuffed to). And yes, Texas A&M would be a solid addition to The Big Ten, both academically and athletically. I don't think that A&M is strong enough to get an invite on their own, but if A&M was in a neighboring state to The Big Ten, I think they would.
I can't see the SEC considering expansion, unless it's a reactionary move to The Big Ten or Pac 10 expanding. BUt, if they did, I could see the SEC taking any combination involving the Big XII powers.
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PAC10
Dec 9, 2010 12:23:04 GMT -5
Post by Cliff's Notes on Dec 9, 2010 12:23:04 GMT -5
An excellent write up from Frank the Tank: frankthetank.wordpress.com/2010/12/07/the-settling-conference-realignment-landscape/He mentions that the Big Ten Championship game will bring in $23 Million per year from Fox for TV rights alone. Compare that to the SEC bringing in $14 Million per year. The general assumption had been that the Big Ten CCG is relatively equal in value to the SEC CCG. But 64% more valuable? I think that number shows the value of inflation (and competition), and helps confirm that the next Big Ten TV contract is going to be through the roof. Fox and ESPN will be serious, serious bidders.
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PAC10
Dec 10, 2010 13:41:40 GMT -5
Post by theforty on Dec 10, 2010 13:41:40 GMT -5
Frank's blog is well written and informative.
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PAC10
Dec 14, 2010 9:36:04 GMT -5
Post by harlem on Dec 14, 2010 9:36:04 GMT -5
"Leaders" and "Legends"? Really? That is what they came up with?
That is bad. Really bad.
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PAC10
Dec 14, 2010 11:38:48 GMT -5
Post by reghartner on Dec 14, 2010 11:38:48 GMT -5
"Leaders" and "Legends"? Really? That is what they came up with? That is bad. Really bad. If that won, what the hell lost?
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PAC10
Dec 14, 2010 21:55:02 GMT -5
Post by Cliff's Notes on Dec 14, 2010 21:55:02 GMT -5
That's really, really bad.
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PAC10
Sept 19, 2011 9:30:52 GMT -5
Post by Cliff's Notes on Sept 19, 2011 9:30:52 GMT -5
Conference Armageddon is here! Not really. But I'm amazed at how fast things moved over the weekend, with Pitt and Syracuse sealing the deal with the ACC. It's comical how people are quick to shout how bad it is for a team to switch conferences. Especially ESPN shouting about Greed and Deception. Really ESPN? It's been made pretty clear where you stand on morality and openness. espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/6988839/greed-hypocrisy-spell-end-big-east-know-college-basketballThe great thing about this article, is that her venom can't be restrained. "This is not Colorado and Utah slithering off to the Pac-10". Really? Utah is "slithering off" from a non-BCS AQ league to the Pac-10? Utah improves their conference revenue (bowls, tv, etc.) from about $2M to about $20M? Their schedule adds USC and UCLA annually, at the cost of Wyoming and UNLV? And this is slithering? Everyone is looking out for their own self-interest. Duh. The Big East has poached from others, but is indignant when they lose a school. Hello? Didn't you clearly market yourself as a basketball conference? Hasn't there been talk of an All-Catholic conference breaking out? So now they are shocked and disappointed to hear that a couple of football schools want to be in a better football league! So once again, it's ok for the Big East to be self-serving, but not ok for Pitt or Syracuse or the ACC to be self serving. And oh yeah, the Big East reached out to some Big XII schools (Baylor, Kansas, Iowa State), too. Lovely morality, Big East. Shut the F up. I'm somewhat surprised this hasn't happened sooner, but it appears that with the big change in money from TV, that everyone is now scrambling to protect themselves for stability and to try to keep up. As a fan of college football, I am excited by this. It will lead to more attractive games for the football fan, and better competition, and likely a better post-season for college football. As for the Big Ten, Pitt and Syracuse were in the discussion, but not strong first tier candidates for joining. At this point, I think The Big Ten is going to sit still until/unless they add Texas and Notre Dame. And I wouldn't be surprised if they hit 14, and then stop for a long, long, time. Rutgers and Missouri and UConn are still Big Ten possibilities, but they will jump at the first stable conference invite. There are still dominoes that will fall, and it will be interesting to see when and how it works out for Oklahoma, Texas A&M, FSU, WVU, Va Tech, Rutgers, UConn, and Mizzou. But at this point, regardless of what happens with anything else, we're all waiting to see what happens with Texas.
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PAC10
Sept 19, 2011 20:19:08 GMT -5
Post by friartuck on Sept 19, 2011 20:19:08 GMT -5
It's all very reminiscent of the excitement about who would be in the Triple Entente, The Triple Alliance, The League of the Three Emperors, and who was invited to the Manoogian Mansion party.
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PAC10
Sept 20, 2011 9:22:50 GMT -5
Post by Cliff's Notes on Sept 20, 2011 9:22:50 GMT -5
It's all very reminiscent of the excitement about who would be in the Triple Entente, The Triple Alliance, The League of the Three Emperors, and who was invited to the Manoogian Mansion party. Let's hope without the invasions, war crimes, or "alleged" murders. One point that was brought up recently on Frank the Tank's site that connects to another topic of mine, is to watch the Notre Dame hockey team as the "canary in a coal mine". College hockey had massive realignment this summer, and there is one big move left to be made. Notre Dame had promised their conference mates that they would make a decision on realignment by the CCHA conference meeting on August 15th. That day has come and gone, and no word from ND. Technically, there isn't a big rush; they really have about 24 months to decide, and everybody wants them. However, I don't really understand what else the Irish hockey team is waiting for, except the possibility that they may join The Big Ten in all sports, including hockey. If the Irish go ahead and join either Hockey East or the new NCHC, it probably clinches the deal that Notre Dame will not be joining The Big Ten in all sports any time soon (and either maintaining independence or joining the ACC). But the longer this drags out, the more apparent it is that The Irish are considering The Big Ten. For the Irish hockey team, there is no question that their best choice is to join The Big Ten, but this choice obviously cannot be made in a vacuum.
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