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Post by harlem on Jul 22, 2010 13:50:27 GMT -5
So is this (2009-2010) pretty much as good as Verlander is going to be?
If so, the Tigers need to pursue Cliff Lee in the off-season. They need a real ace if they are going to contend for the pennant. Verlander is a decent #1 for a decent team, but not for a playoff team.
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Post by Doobs on Jul 23, 2010 6:05:21 GMT -5
I agree whole heartedly with going after Lee, but there is no way in Hell he is coming here. We will not be able to compete moneywise with the like of the Yankees, RedSox.... With that said, please go after Cliff Lee Mr. Dombrowski!
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Post by harlem on Jul 27, 2010 6:45:52 GMT -5
Below you will see the following career numbers for various starting pitchers since Opening Day 2007 (through this year's All-Star Break). You will see that Verlander's numbers are below all of the others. W L ERA IP SO/9 SO/BB WHIP Lincecum 50 21 2.91 724 10.1 3.05 1.167 Wainwright 58 28 2.92 709 7.2 2.76 1.217 Halladay 63 35 2.93 858 7.1 4.83 1.123 Lee 49 28 3.32 674 6.9 4.28 1.184 Sabathia 67 28 3.09 862 8 3.69 1.139 Haran 52 35 3.42 803 8.5 4.71 1.152 Greinke 41 34 3.10 679 8.4 3.76 1.191 Hernandez 49 29 3.17 775 8 2.81 1.264 Vazquez 49 41 3.83 739 8.9 3.79 1.167 Santana 51 34 2.98 747 8.1 3.32 1.149 Oswalt 45 33 3.50 722 7.1 3.13 1.216 Verlander 59 37 3.93 764 8.6 2.81 1.257
This following table shows the 162 game average, to normalize them into single-season totals. W L ERA IP SO/9 SO/BB WHIP Lincecum 16 7 2.91 227 10.1 3.05 1.167 Wainwright 19 9 2.92 228 7.2 2.76 1.217 Halladay 19 11 2.93 253 7.1 4.83 1.123 Lee 18 10 3.32 234 6.9 4.28 1.184 Sabathia 19 8 3.09 238 8 3.69 1.139 Haran 15 10 3.42 228 8.5 4.71 1.152 Greinke 12 10 3.10 198 8.4 3.76 1.191 Hernandez 15 9 3.17 230 8 2.81 1.264 Vazquez 15 13 3.83 222 8.9 3.79 1.167 Santana 16 11 2.98 229 8.1 3.32 1.149 Oswalt 14 10 3.50 219 7.1 3.13 1.216 Verlander 17 11 3.93 219 8.6 2.81 1.257
Verlander's numbers are not that impressive against other "aces" especially when taking into effect that his home field has a pitcher's advantage.
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Post by Cliff's Notes on Jul 27, 2010 13:51:37 GMT -5
Just to clarify for my benefit:
Are you implying (perhaps unintentionally) that Verlander is the 12th best starting pitcher in the game?
How much weight do you put on each stat listed?
If Verlander = Jack Morris, then is Greinke = Dave Stieb?
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Post by harlem on Jul 27, 2010 14:10:35 GMT -5
Just to clarify for my benefit: Are you implying (perhaps unintentionally) that Verlander is the 12th best starting pitcher in the game? How much weight do you put on each stat listed? If Verlander = Jack Morris, then is Greinke = Dave Stieb? All the above pitchers have stat lines better than Verlander (with the exception of Vasquez, which is fairly even). I am stating that Verlander is easily not in the top ten. You can argue whether that merits 12th, or 11th, or 19th. Is he that much better or worse than Vasquez or Hernandez? No. But the others on the list have far better numbers. Verlander walks too many people and this is his major flaw. The others have better control, or if they don't, they make up for it by allowing fewer base runners. I like Verlander a lot, when he is on. He is a good ace for a good team, but he is not a great ace, which is important for any great team. I haven't seen that much of a marked increase over the past few years to elevate him to where Detroit needs him to be, which is why I say we need to make a concerted effort at Cliff Lee. With Verlander, we wanted Gaylord Perry, but instead I think we got Jim Perry... which is not bad.... but I'd rather have Gaylord. (Note: The Perry Metaphor refers to the magnitude of pitching dominance, not pitching style). I don't know about the Morris - Stieb reference. I'll leave that to others. Note that due to injury or recent success, Carpenter, Jiminez and Johnson are not included in the above discussion. I'd say they are probably better as well.
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Post by Cliff's Notes on Jul 30, 2010 10:57:57 GMT -5
Well stated. I'm not arguing, just was curious. You convinced me.
The Morris-Steib comments were meant to use the sarcasm font.
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Post by theforty on Jun 27, 2011 8:03:33 GMT -5
Verlander has been a real ace this year. At the time of this post he is the league leader in wins, winning percentage, IP, strikeouts, WHIP, and his strikeout to walk ratio is 4.6. His ERA is 2.38. He is a legitimate candidate to win the pitching triple crown in 2011.
Also, his stats since 2007 are depressed somewhat because of a uncharacteristically poor 2008. I'd suggest his typical level of play is closer to 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 levels than the average of 2007-2010.
For fun, since May, Justin is:
8-0 11 starts 86 2/3 IP (just a shade under 8 IP per start) 17 ER (and 17 R) 1.77 ERA 51 hits 81 K 14 BB (+ 3 HBP) 0.75 WHIP
He has more Ks than hits, walks and HBP combined in the timeframe, and with margin. Not to many pitchers can do that for a two month period.
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Post by harlem on Jun 27, 2011 11:17:40 GMT -5
It's good to see he read this thread and fixed his major flaw (control) as I pointed out. Kids, make note: throw strikes.
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Post by theforty on Sept 3, 2011 6:04:48 GMT -5
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Post by osu054 on Sept 14, 2011 9:22:52 GMT -5
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Post by theforty on Nov 21, 2011 14:37:18 GMT -5
Pitching Triple Crown, Cy Young, and MVP, bitches.
That would be a career year.
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Post by theforty on Dec 18, 2011 20:08:06 GMT -5
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Post by Cliff's Notes on Dec 19, 2011 9:37:53 GMT -5
So this begs a few follow up questions:
Is Verlander's season repeatable? Probably a better question is what's the likely dropoff?
And if not, will Fister's presence for a full year (along with the subsequent improvements at #3 #4, and #5 from guys dropping a slot in the order), balance out any drop off?
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Post by theforty on Jan 1, 2012 11:19:53 GMT -5
If I had to guess, the Tigers would win 90 games next year as currently constructed, likely good enough to win the Central.
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Post by theforty on Oct 12, 2012 16:43:47 GMT -5
Verlander is an ace.
I think his 'drop-off' was largely due to worse run support. He was 95% the pitcher he was in 2011, and really should win the Cy Young, though I don't think he will.
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