I can't believe that I am going to attempt to discuss statistical analysis with several people on this group that will blow me away, but here we go.
Austin Jackson: 11 players had at least 400 at bats in the lead off spot and his average was the lowest, and only Ichiro had a lower obp (although ichiro had 184 hits to jackson's 143). Although he was the 4th highest AL CF in fielding %, he is 15th in avg as a CF.
Avilla: Started the most games in the AL (130) as Catcher. No one should be doing that and be expected to hit like he has this year. 2011 Iron Man Award. Would not surprise me to hear he played entire post season with injury. Bryan Holloday should help next year.
INGE: NO ONE WILL EVER CONVINCE ME HE SHOLD BE ON ROSTER, PERIOD..... I DON'T CARE HOW MANY HOMERUNS IN POSTSEASON. HIM BEING ON THE TEAM GOES TO THE POOR LEADERSHIP OF THE MANAGER, WHICH LEADS ME TO MY ANNUAL SUMMARY THAT THE DETROIT TIGERS NEED FOR A NEW MANAGER.
Everyone who has listened to me knows I am not a Jim Leyland Fan. I do not believe that he has what it takes, unless what it takes is to ride on Dombrowski's coattails and win once in a while.
Leyland does not have what it takes, and he does not surround himself with talented coaches. It is time for a change. I have come to the realization now that I am in my 40's that I am getting old, why, because the players of my youth are now managing(Gibby, Mattingly, and now Ventura). Okay, it did not work with Trammel, however, we are in the midst of a major transition of baseball managers, and if Dombrowski is a true progressive GM, will bring in a former player of the 80's to follow in line.
That is all folks, I am looking forward to a wonderful World Series. I wish I could hate the Texas Rangers, but I don't, I like the players, the fans, and watching Nolan Ryan's obvious intensity at every game. I do not hate the Cardinals either. I am rooting for good games and not necessarily choosing sides.
The Tigers won 95 games and dispatched of the Yankees (same as 2006). They have holes, but I don't think them huge. I actually think them better positioned now than they were after 2006.
5th starter - Personally I'd get another Brad Penny type (1 year, $3M) and be done with it. Jacob Turner will likely be called up for good at some point. They have some other AAA arms that can fill holes for 3 or 4 starts here and there. And you typically only need 4 sarters for April. So I think they will be OK with starting pitching if they add a marginal guy, even if they have some injuries.
2B - I'd like Kelly Johnson despite him having a poor year. There really isn't much available to upgrade 2B, and trading Scott Sizemore was probably a bad idea (I know he wasn't hitting here so he was moved).
3B - My guess is Inge is back. Just a guess. Maybe they will offer Aramis Ramirez a deal.
LF - I think they will retain Delmon Young, though I personally think he is Craig Monroe v2.0. Not a ton here in free agency either.
CF - bat Jackson 9th and overhaul his timing mechanism with the leg kick. Please.
I wouldn't mind a offering Grady Sizemore a 1 or 2 year incentive laden deal to be a 4th OF or LF, but he just had his 5th(!) knee surgery in the last 2 years, so he could well be cooked.
I think a trade is the most likely way the Tigers make a splash in the off-season, if a splash is made.
Last Edit: Oct 18, 2011 7:44:46 GMT -5 by theforty
Post by Cliff's Notes on Oct 18, 2011 8:55:30 GMT -5
What about the $ coming off the books from Magglio and Guillen? Does the budget simply need to be scaled back, or held in reserve for a legitmate star (that isn't necessarily available in FA right now)?
Regarding Inge, I don't like him. However, I will grant that he could be a useful asset as a utility guy, and seems to be great in the clubhouse and as the media spokesman. However, when he pitched that whiny fit a few years ago over losing his 3B spot, I don't know if he would accept being strictly a utility guy. But if he could catch a few games, and be a late inning 3B defensive replacement, why not?
The issue is Verlander is due a huge raise (+$7.5M I believe) per the terms of his contract. Victor Martinez and Cabrera are due raises as well, though those increases are fairly modest ($1M each, if I remember correctly). Those raises basically negate the savings from getting Ordonez' contract off of the books.
Valverde has a fairly large option year which the Tigers will almost certainly pick up, and Delmon Young would likely get something like $6 - $7M in arbitration, should he be offered.
I think I saw an analysis that has the Tigers freeing up around $6 - 8 M if they retain Valverde and Young and freeing up $25M if they let those guys walk. I'd personally keep Valverde and let Young walk, but I dislike Delmon more than most.
Last Edit: Oct 18, 2011 15:00:58 GMT -5 by theforty
I would like to see the Tigers approach Javier Vazquez for a #5 starter. At 35, you could probably get him on the cheap, and he is still effective and would fit well in Comerica Park. Mark Buerhle will be a Yankee, most likely. C.J Wilson is too expensive.
The Tigers do not have much to offer in the way of a trade, since their minor league system is fairly depleted. Maybe the Tigers can coax Brandon Phillips away from the Reds in a Max Scherzer offer.
I have made my opinions on Brandon Inge well-known. I do not need to expound upon that.
The Twins big two - Morneau and Mauer - have fairly big question marks moving forward. Imagine the Tigers with a mediocre Cabrera and an oft-injured Verlander. They would be boned. That is where the Twins are at today. I'm not sure sure Morneau will ever be the same again, and if Mauer doesn't catch regularly ... well ... his offensive numbers aren't as valuable at DH or 1B. They really don't solid prospects to roll into the line-up either.
The White Sox' success is predicated on Peavy, Dunn, and Rios not being garbage. They have near $27M tied up per year for 3 more years(!) on Dunn and Rios - Peavy gets paid $17M next year with a $4M buy after next year that he will probably get. Buehrle is gone. Konerko is a good hitterr, but he is 35. So unless their high salary guys improve, it is hard for the Sox to do anything because the players they want to dump are largely untradeable.
The Indians looked like they were shedding their older players and had some exciting guys down in the minors that could make them good a few years from now. Then they bet the farm on Ubaldo Jimenez. I like Ubaldo. I think he can be a great pitcher. But he does not make that team a play-off team given their current line-up and other starters. And that potential influx of young talent took a major hit in acquiring him. So now they are in between - good enough to be close, but not enough talent in the forseeable future to actually contend. They really should have been thinking of adding a modest upgrade at low cost than going for broke this past July.
That leaves the Royals. They have perhaps the best farm system in baseball. They probably only need half their studs to pan out (pan out meaning becoming what scouts expect) to be a consistent 90 game winner - that is how good their farm system is - but they are a few years away. I think Hosmer is going to be good - he is at the leading edge of this core of young talent.
The Tigers should win the divison 2 or 3 times in the next 3 years unless the Chicago guys rebound in a major way or Detroit is beset with injuries.
It kinda lines up with what was stated earlier. Is it enough?
Also, can someone explain to me how it's "acceptable" to have a lesser 3rd, 4th and 5th starter? I understand that it's an arms race, and there is limited supply. But theoretically, your top 4 starters are getting the same amount of starts in a year, give or take 1 or 2.
I understand that the 5th starter could certainly get fewer starts due to off days and the all star break, etc. Plus he likely won't be used in the playoffs. But if your ace gets 35 starts, and your 4th starter gets 33, shouldn't you always be looking to upgrade at #4? To me, unless Porcello or Scherzer has a "bounce-back year, the Tigers still don't have a threatening #3 or #4 pitcher. I'd be much happier with Scherzer and Porcello as #4 and #5.
For the Tigers, the reason why it is acceptable to have Scherzer and Porcello be your #3 and #4 is that both are cost-controlled, and the amount of money likely required to upgrade them enough for it to translate to a few more wins could probably be used more efficiently upgrading 2B, 3B, and/or LF.
But on the general point, you are correct, there is very little difference in available playing time for you 2 through 4 starters. Your number 1 will ususally get a few extra starts at the expense of your number 5.